Every match prediction the model serves, logged before the game and graded after it. Research project — paper predictions, no real money.
Whenever the model rates one side at 51% or higher, that side counts as its pick — no odds, no edge filter, no cherry-picking. Picks are logged before the match starts and graded automatically from results; forfeits and walkovers are void. Sub-51% calls are declared coin flips and sit out of the winrate.
This is a research scoreboard for a prediction model — not betting advice, and no money rides on it.
The model's pick won 153 of 219 (69.9%) since 30 Jun 2026.
10 coin-flip call(s) (under 51% either way) sit out · 9 void (forfeit/walkover) · 146 awaiting a result
Head-to-head with the market, on the 15 graded pick(s) that had a captured market price: model pick won 80.0% vs 86.7% for simply backing the market favorite (204 pick(s) had no market and sit outside this comparison).
A raw winrate flatters any model that mostly agrees with the market — the favorite-vs-model bar above, scored on the same matches, is the honest comparison.
Grouping picks by the model's stated confidence: a well-calibrated model's 70–80% bucket should win about 70–80% of the time. That, not the headline winrate, is the number to watch.
| confidence | picks | won | win rate | avg stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51-60% | 78 | 47 | 60.3% | 55.3% |
| 60-70% | 72 | 46 | 63.9% | 64.7% |
| 70-80% | 43 | 35 | 81.4% | 74.5% |
| 80%+ | 26 | 25 | 96.2% | 86.8% |
Each model promotion starts a new era; every graded pick lands as a tick on its era's band.
| era | what changed | live | graded | W–L | win rate (95% CI) | avg conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v5-era | pre-refit era | 21 Jun – 23 Jun | 0 | — | — | — |
| v6 | v6 baseline | 23 Jun – 2 Jul | 18 | 11–7 | 61.1% CI 38.6–79.7% — n too small | 64.3% |
| v6-refit | refit-all baseline | 2 Jul – 13 Jul | 136 | 95–41 | 69.8% CI 61.7–76.9% | 65.3% |
| v9 | post-Phase-A data | 13 Jul – 15 Jul | 18 | 15–3 | 83.3% CI 60.8–94.2% — n too small | 69.4% |
| v10 | lineup-aware h2h | 15 Jul | 16 | 11–5 | 68.8% CI 44.4–85.8% — n too small | 62.7% |
| v11 | Valve rankings | 16 Jul | 18 | 9–9 | 50.0% CI 29.0–71.0% — n too small | 62.9% |
| v12 | schedule strength | 17 Jul – 18 Jul | 23 | 20–3 | 87.0% CI 67.9–95.5% — n too small | 65.6% |
Eras face different slates — compare each model's calibration, not raw win rates. No per-era verdict before 100 graded picks.