cs2 hub / blast bounty 2026 s2
32 teams, single elimination, and the underdogs pick their opponents. Everything below is machine-generated from the same pipeline that powers the rest of this site: a 100000-run Monte Carlo over model win probabilities, the veto predictor, and scoreboard data most stat sites don't capture.
Model = Monte Carlo tournament win probability (calibrated pick model). Market = bet365 outright futures (2026-07-20 board), proportionally devigged (overround 35%). Differences reflect the model AND the sim's draft assumptions — this is an event study, not the graded ledger. The Spirit number is the model's one big call: it is driven by form (13–1 across PGL Astana + the Cologne Major, beating most of this field) and their fresh VRS #1 rank, while the Elo table still has Vitality ahead — and Spirit have not played an official since June 20. Judge accordingly.
model market
One random tournament per click, using the model's series probabilities for every pairing (BO5 final composed separately; the current model generation prices online and LAN matches identically — the venue flag is not among its selected features). Re-draft picks are random here — the headline numbers above come from the full simulation with a calibrated pick model.
Win % = model probability the seeded team beats its picker (BO3, online). Veto columns come from the sequential veto model (event-aware ABABAB flow). Shared perma-ban matchups are flagged: in those, first bans deviate 63% of the time.
| start | matchup | seed win | likely first bans | likely map 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 20:00 | M80 (#16) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (#17 picked) | 53% | nuke 100%, anubis 0% | dust2 78%, inferno 16% | ancient 24%, anubis 24% |
| 07-21 22:30 | Astralis (#12) vs Nemesis (#20 picked) shared perma-ban anubis | 69% | anubis 29%, cache 23% | anubis 69%, cache 20% | nuke 44%, mirage 18% |
| 07-22 01:00 | MOUZ (#7) vs Nuclear TigeRES (#26 picked) | 76% | anubis 100% | cache 89%, nuke 8% | ancient 66%, dust2 9% |
| 07-22 03:30 | Alliance (#15) vs Wildcard (#23 picked) | 58% | mirage 100%, cache 0% | ancient 100%, anubis 0% | dust2 38%, nuke 24% |
| 07-22 20:00 | FaZe (#11) vs EYEBALLERS (#22 picked) | 80% | inferno 100%, anubis 0% | anubis 43%, nuke 18% | anubis 30%, ancient 17% |
| 07-22 22:30 | G2 (#6) vs Nemiga (#32 picked) | 77% | nuke 99%, anubis 1% | inferno 97%, cache 1% | anubis 51%, ancient 21% |
| 07-23 01:00 | GamerLegion (#9) vs HOTU (#27 picked) | 70% | dust2 100%, cache 0% | inferno 100% | cache 39%, anubis 20% |
| 07-23 03:30 | Falcons (#1) vs 100 Thieves (#30 picked) | 86% | cache 59%, inferno 28% | anubis 56%, mirage 37% | inferno 43%, ancient 21% |
| 07-23 20:00 | Aurora (#5) vs FOKUS (#29 picked) | 80% | ancient 100%, cache 0% | anubis 100%, cache 0% | inferno 42%, cache 27% |
| 07-23 22:30 | FUT (#8) vs SINNERS (#28 picked) | 78% | inferno 100%, cache 0% | anubis 99%, cache 0% | nuke 37%, mirage 23% |
| 07-24 01:00 | paiN (#13) vs Gentle Mates (#25 picked) | 64% | ancient 100%, inferno 0% | dust2 100%, anubis 0% | inferno 68%, nuke 14% |
| 07-24 03:30 | Spirit (#3) vs OG (#31 picked) | 93% | inferno 100%, cache 0% | anubis 97%, dust2 1% | cache 48%, nuke 28% |
| 07-24 19:00 | magic (#14) vs 3DMAX (#21 picked) | 59% | nuke 100%, cache 0% | mirage 100%, ancient 0% | cache 62%, ancient 17% |
| 07-24 21:30 | The MongolZ (#10) vs HEROIC (#24 picked) | 74% | cache 44%, anubis 25% | anubis 74%, cache 18% | nuke 32%, dust2 25% |
| 07-25 00:00 | Vitality (#2) vs Liquid (#18 picked) | 89% | ancient 99%, cache 1% | cache 46%, dust2 31% | inferno 23%, mirage 19% |
| 07-25 02:30 | FURIA (#4) vs Sharks (#19 picked) | 77% | ancient 99%, cache 1% | dust2 100%, inferno 0% | cache 38%, nuke 29% |
The bottom half picked their opponents from the top half. Rank #1 would mean "picked the top-half team you're most likely to beat". Availability approximated as the full top half — the broadcast only documented part of the pick order.
| picker | chose | rank | p(win) | easiest on the board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gentle Mates | paiN | #1 | 36% | paiN |
| Wildcard | Alliance | #1 | 42% | Alliance |
| 3DMAX | magic | #3 | 41% | Alliance |
| Ninjas in Pyjamas | M80 | #3 | 47% | paiN |
| HOTU | GamerLegion | #4 | 30% | paiN |
| SINNERS | FUT | #6 | 22% | Alliance |
| Nemesis | Astralis | #6 | 31% | paiN |
| HEROIC | The MongolZ | #8 | 26% | paiN |
| FOKUS | Aurora | #9 | 20% | paiN |
| Nemiga | G2 | #9 | 23% | paiN |
| Nuclear TigeRES | MOUZ | #9 | 24% | paiN |
| EYEBALLERS | FaZe | #12 | 20% | paiN |
| Sharks | FURIA | #13 | 23% | Alliance |
| 100 Thieves | Falcons | #14 | 14% | paiN |
| Liquid | Vitality | #15 | 11% | paiN |
| OG | Spirit | — | — | leftover — no choice |
Cache re-entered the pool on 2026-06-24. 21 of 32 teams have never played it in an official match since — including most of the top half of this field. Teams below are the ones who have at least met it in a veto; everyone else is at zero.
| team | vetos seen | banned | picked | w–l | last played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear TigeRES | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0–0 | never |
| Alliance | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0–0 | never |
| Gentle Mates | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0–1 | 2026-07-17 |
| SINNERS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0–0 | never |
| HEROIC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0–1 | 2026-07-15 |
| paiN | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0–2 | 2026-07-16 |
| Nemesis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0–0 | never |
| Ninjas in Pyjamas | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0–1 | 2026-07-18 |
| M80 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2–0 | 2026-07-11 |
| EYEBALLERS | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 2026-07-05 |
| 3DMAX | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3–1 | 2026-07-17 |
| FaZe | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3–0 | 2026-07-11 |
| HOTU | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2–1 | 2026-07-14 |
| Sharks | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2–0 | 2026-07-11 |
| magic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 2026-07-09 |
| Wildcard | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | never |
Never played: Nuclear TigeRES, Alliance, SINNERS, Nemesis, Wildcard, Falcons, Vitality, Spirit, FURIA, Aurora, G2, MOUZ, FUT, GamerLegion, The MongolZ, Astralis, Liquid, FOKUS, 100 Thieves, OG, Nemiga.
Round swing is HLTV's signed per-map impact stat; opening +/- is opening kills minus opening deaths per map. Both come from scoreboard data this pipeline captures beyond the basics.
| player | team | rating | maps |
|---|---|---|---|
| donk | Spirit | 1.62 | 32 |
| ZywOo | Vitality | 1.42 | 37 |
| molodoy | FURIA | 1.32 | 34 |
| xertioN | MOUZ | 1.30 | 44 |
| nEMANHA | Wildcard | 1.30 | 34 |
| device | 100 Thieves | 1.29 | 59 |
| sh1ro | Spirit | 1.29 | 32 |
| mhL | Wildcard | 1.29 | 34 |
| frozen | FaZe | 1.28 | 42 |
| mizu | HOTU | 1.28 | 43 |
| player | team | round_swing | maps |
|---|---|---|---|
| donk | Spirit | +6.94 | 32 |
| ZywOo | Vitality | +4.04 | 37 |
| device | 100 Thieves | +3.46 | 59 |
| sh1ro | Spirit | +3.26 | 32 |
| molodoy | FURIA | +3.18 | 34 |
| m0NESY | Falcons | +2.99 | 50 |
| mhL | Wildcard | +2.98 | 34 |
| mizu | HOTU | +2.72 | 43 |
| maxster | EYEBALLERS | +2.45 | 24 |
| 910 | The MongolZ | +2.38 | 36 |
| player | team | opening_diff_per_map | maps |
|---|---|---|---|
| donk | Spirit | +2.31 | 32 |
| MartinezSa | Gentle Mates | +1.81 | 53 |
| ZywOo | Vitality | +1.57 | 37 |
| device | 100 Thieves | +1.54 | 59 |
| eraa | Alliance | +1.52 | 59 |
| m0NESY | Falcons | +1.48 | 50 |
| MoDo | SINNERS | +1.39 | 28 |
| Maka | 3DMAX | +1.35 | 23 |
| slaxz- | M80 | +1.26 | 43 |
| sh1ro | Spirit | +1.19 | 32 |